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However, if the war and the effective closure of the Strait stretch beyond the market’s four-week expectation, the economic consequences could become dire. If regional storage facilities run out of space and production is forced to shut down, the market will only be able to rebalance through forced “demand destruction”. “To generate substantial demand destruction, prices may have to rise into triple digit territory,” Struyven warned, adding that the length of the disruption is the single most important variable in the market right now. Every sustained 10% increase in crude oil prices raises headline inflation by about 0.3% and reduces disposable income by the same margin.
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BofA points out that the sector currently trades at 22x trailing free cash flow and 15 times enterprise value to trailing Ebitda. While bulls might argue that the stocks look cheap after falling 24% from peak valuations set a year ago, BofA cautions that these multiples have merely returned to pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, BofA asserts that insurance distribution firms frequently utilize liberal earnings “adjustments”—such as excluding integration costs from their steady stream of acquisitions—that tend to significantly flatter their true earnings power.